Current

§

Apple and Backdoors

According to a report published today on Appleinsider:
Apple is inundated with so many requests from law enforcement agencies to decrypt seized iPhones that officials must endure a waiting list before their case is handled.

This should be very troubling news to any owner of an iPhone or other iOS device which is encrypted. Why? Because Apple clearly has a backdoor capability to decrypt the contents of your phone.
An ATF agent turned to Apple for help after discovering that the agency "did not have the forensic capability" to decrypt the phone. Once the agent reached out to Apple, they were told it would be a wait of at least 7 weeks before the case could be addressed.

Law enforcement agencies are attempting to bypass Apple's security in order to gather evidence that can be used to charge suspected criminals. But because they're unable to break Apple's encryption, agencies are forced to seek assistance from the iPhone maker

If Apple did not have the capability to decrypt these devices there would be no reason to put anyone on a waiting list. Better put another layer of your own encryption on top if you are in the Apple ecosystem.

Prior

§

Boston = OWS

Well, seeing everyone else wants to jump to conclusions why not me. I'll put my bet on OWS (Occupy Wall Street), Boston chapter. Said it privately from day one and the combination of the just released photos and lack of any chest thumping from our Islamic friends points to domestic terrorism. And "right wing" extremists have a history of targeting federal facilities and abortion clinics so this does not fit their profile at all. Apologies to OWS in advance if I am wrong.

My guess is this is silent retribution for what was done by the DA/FBI to Aaron Swartz, the MIT student who killed himself last month. You can look up that sad story yourself. I should add that Anonymous is an outside possibility too but as many in that group were supporters/participants in the OWS movement, it is difficult to separate them.

[4/20/13] Updated

Well this is all turning out quite interesting to say the least. Still no known motive but they do have the younger brother alive so hopefully that will be established. Listening to the interviews of people who knew them, in particular the younger brother, it really is hard to figure this out. Even supposing his older brother was somehow "radicalized", there were no signs he would follow in that path - if anything, quite the opposite. A lot of people are pointing to twitter this, youtube that but one needs to be cautious in looking at social media websites claiming to be from anyone. It is incredibly easy to spoof a page and unfortunately, there is a subclass of people on the net who seem to do this after every tragic event - create a page, populate it with comments or content and then post about it all over the net "Look what I found!" Even so, taking some of the videos at face value, none seem to be about going on jihad but instead seem to relate to prayer and details around that.

Even the older brother is difficult to pin down. A jihadi that was a regional golden glove winner? Who wanted to go to the Olympics to box? And if some of the purported photos of him with his girlfriend/wife are in fact real, he certainly did not press her very hard on dress code. Finally, while there have been instances of displaced Chechen fighters (or terrorists/militants if you are Russian) becoming mercenary and joining up with Arabs and others in Afghanistan and possibly Iraq and Syria, there is no history of any independent actions against any state other than Russia. In effect, what happens in Chechnya stays in Chechnya (or Moscow).

It is really critical to now find out the motives of these two and of course any other outside connections they may have had. There is one report that the FBI interviewed the older brother after a foreign service said they thought he was involved with terrorists (hmm... Russia?) The FBI is reported to have investigated and found no connections, including a personal interview with the suspect. In this day and age one has to believe the FBI/'DHS would scour the world fairly well before giving a clean bill of health - after all, look how hard it is to get off the no-fly list even if you are a white bread American. So, was this a "lone wolf" operation? If so, what was the trigger? Are any actions by the US likely to trigger more such attacks, if so, is that risk acceptable? If this was an externally directed operation, by whom? Is this some new group or off-shoot of Al Qaeda? After all, the usual jihadi groups have been strangely silent.

Finally (perhaps offensive to some), the actions of the media, police, federal law enforcement and White House has been idiotic. The circus that they made Boston into has served only to increase the chances of similar such attacks in the future. To every wannabe jihadi sitting at home watching their first thoughts must be "look at the chaos I can cause just by killing a handful of people," "look at the millions of dollars they spent," "look at how they shut everything down out of fear of a teen-ager," "look how they even get paranoid in other citiies!"

Why did they shut down the hockey and baseball games? Did they really think the last brother was going to come screaming down the street in a stolen car, Mad Max like, and crash into the building? Or that he might get even remotely close to the event before somebody recognized him (not to mention he was likely to have been wounded)? In the end, it was somebody who finally went outside of their house that found the suspect - NOT the police. Yet Bostonians were sent to cower in their homes until it was "safe" to come outside.

Hopefully, after this event, people will start to question the bill of goods they were sold by local and federal officials about "security" and how giving them "x,y and z" was necessary to protect them. Yes, just like thousands of public cameras stopped this attack. Yes, just like "facial recognition" stopped this attack. Yes, just like warrantless actions by FBI, CIA and NSA stopped this attack. Perhaps they needed a fleet of drones overhead (I'm sure somebody will be stupid enough to suggest that). The bottom line is America has wasted countless billions upon security theater and is no safer but citizens have given up significant civil liberties and protections under the constitution. For what? Nothing. Americans need to stop being pussies and stand up not only to the terrorists but to their own government too.

Ok, off the soap box.

Prior(2)

§

The Norks And Fear Mongering

Yesterday, Representative Doug Lamborn, Republican of Colorado, disclosed the "unclassified" portion of a recent DIA assessment of North Korean nuclear capabilities during a session of the House Armed Services Committee.
"DIA assesses with moderate confidence the North currently has nuclear weapons capable of delivering by ballistic missiles. However, the reliability will be low,” the DIA report says.

Late last night, the spokesman for the DoD, Geroge Little, said:
“It would be inaccurate to suggest that the North Korean regime has fully tested, developed or demonstrated the kinds of nuclear capabilities referenced in the passage”

and director of national intelligence, James R. Clapper Jr., released a statement saying
“North Korea has not yet demonstrated the full range of capabilities necessary for a nuclear armed missile.”

It was also interesting to read that the original DIA report that Lamborn read from was in fact meant to be fully classified secret or higher but that the portion which he read was "mistakenly" marked unclassified. Hmmm.

This smells of an internal agenda (or food fight) within the intelligence community and the DoD DIA, while the primarily source of military intel, DIA operates outside the umbrella of the director of intelligence and instead report directly to the Sec. Def. at DoD. Thus it is quite possible for their assessments to be in conflict and, as we saw with Iraq, it is quite possible to use "analysis" to push a preferred agenda.

What is interesting also is this piece out of Japan on April 5 from The Asahi Shimbun with headline LEFT IN THE DARK: U.S. keeps mum about compact nuke bomb amid N. Korean crisis and lede:
The United States has kept information on a small but powerful nuclear device close to the chest, even holding it back from close allies Japan and South Korea, despite the possibility that it is possessed by North Korea. full story


There are two interesting take-aways from the article. First, it moved the Norks straight to a boosted implosion bomb. What evidence is there for this leap? There is not even certainty what type of devices the Norks have tested in the past (or their success), though some speculate the recent tests have been a hollow core device intended for later boosting. What is agreed is that whatever was tested resulted in very low yield. Second, it was clearly meant as a controlled leak by someone(s) with an agenda which was not getting the attention they wanted behind closed doors.

A boosted device requires changing the tamper material as well as the precise use of deuterium and tritium in the pit to achieve a "boost". An alternative is Sahkarov's layer cake design which uses lithium deuteride (which on implosion releases the necessary tritium). A small downer for this view though might be, quoting Jeffrey Lewis:
A boosted weapon requires tritium (or, in the case of the “layer cake,” lithium-6 deuteride) which has a half-life of only 12.4 years and must be produced in a nuclear reactor. Did North Korea produce a small amount of tritium in one of its reactors or purchase the material from Pakistan? There is no public confirmation—or even as far as I know defector allegations—that North Korea is developing a boosted fission weapon or stockpiling tritium, lithium-6 deuteride or other fusion fuels. If it is a reasonable assumption that boosted weapons are North Korea’s next step, there is no solid evidence that they have taken it—yet.Source:Armscontrolwonk.com

I'll grant that the post is from mid 2010 but as far as I have read there have been no "advances" in this regard. It is hard to imagine a boosted device without this capability. Lewis did follow this up in January of this year:
Given all this, we should at least consider the possibility that, in addition to testing an HEU-based device, the North Koreans may burn a fusion fuel like Lithium 6. China detonated a 250-kiloton thermonuclear device on its third test, after a design program that lasted little more than a year. India conducted one test in 1974. Then, on May 11, 1998, India conducted three simultaneous nuclear tests — one of which they claimed was a thermonuclear weapon. (India conducted two more tests on May 13.) There are lots of reasons to believe that India’s H-bomb was a disappointment, but North Korea has hardly been deterred from testing by the prospect of failure. Our friends in Israel seem to have a thermonuclear weapon of one sort or another with no known tests, plus whatever might have happened on September 22, 1979.

However, a "layer cake" or "alarm clock" design would not be small enough for delivery by missile and a design using Li6-D in the center would be required. Word has it that this type of design has been tested in the past but found to be very difficult to make work, probably in part because of the absorbtion of neutrons by Li6-D reducing the yield of the primary. And as Lewis notes, there is no evidence that NK produced any tritium when they had their reactor running. If they had, at least half of it would be gone by now, if not more.

So where does that leave us today? I think exactly where we were yesterday, last year and 10 years ago. Concerned about what the Norks are up to but not to the point of panic. It is still low probability they have a working device small enough to be deployed on a ballistic missile (short, medium or long) and the accuracy (even reliability) of their longer range missiles is terrible. Factor in that any use of the handful of devices they might have (or get) would result in an immediate, far more severe retaliation and I really don't think we need lose sleep at night over the "Great Successor" trying his best to get noticed.

Prior(3)

§

Q4 2012 GDP Final LIes

So the government would like everyone to believe that real GDP grew at an outstanding 0.4% annual rate in the last quarter of 2012. Sad as that number is, in our opinion it is complete fiction. Why? Look at the price components used to adjust from nominal dollars to "real" dollars. The table below shows 2012/2011 year/year Q4 and 2012 Q3 vs Q4, all annualized. Do you believe those price changes? Remember - bumping the up by only 0.4% puts real GDP into negative territory. Real world? I don't think so. Everyone that pays for medical insurance/care would sure love that line item to be true.

Components of Price Deflators, Annualized
Item 2012 Q4 vs 2011 Q4 2012 Q4 vs 2012 Q3
Gross domestic product 1.8% 1.0%
Personal consumption expenditures 1.6% 1.6%
Goods 0.9% 1.0%
Durable goods (1.6%) (2.1%)
Motor vehicles and parts 0.7% 0.0%
Furnishings and durable household equipment (0.4%) (2.0%)
Recreational goods and vehicles (5.8%) (5.9%)
Other durable goods (0.5%) 0.5%
Nondurable goods 2.1% 2.5%
Food and beverages purchased for off-premises consumption 1.1% 1.8%
Clothing and footwear 2.4% 1.0%
Gasoline and other energy goods 5.9% 11.5%
Other nondurable goods 1.2% (0.4%)
Services 1.9% 1.9%
Household consumption expenditures (for services) 2.0% 1.8%
Housing and utilities 1.9% 2.9%
Health care 1.9% 1.4%
Transportation services 1.2% 1.0%
Recreation services 2.8% 1.6%
Food services and accommodations 2.6% 1.6%
Financial services and insurance 2.2% 1.0%
Other services 1.8% 1.7%
Final consumption expenditures of nonprofit institutions serving households (NPISHs) 1 0.4% 3.2%
Gross output of nonprofit institutions 2 2.0% 2.1%
Less: Receipts from sales of goods and services by nonprofit institutions 3 2.5% 1.7%
Gross private domestic investment 1.1% 1.5%
Fixed investment 1.3% 1.5%
Nonresidential 1.2% 1.2%
Structures 2.1% 1.3%
Equipment and software 0.9% 1.1%
Information processing equipment and software (0.7%) (1.1%)
Computers and peripheral equipment (1.2%) (2.9%)
Software 4 (0.8%) (1.0%)
Other (0.3%) (0.6%)
Industrial equipment 1.5% 1.5%
Transportation equipment 3.3% 6.4%
Other equipment 2.5% 1.8%
Residential 1.5% 2.9%
Change in private inventories n/a n/a
Farm n/a n/a
Nonfarm n/a n/a
Net exports of goods and services
Exports 1.2% 1.5%
Goods 0.8% 1.2%
Services 2.1% 2.3%
Imports 0.0% 5.2%
Goods (0.2%) 5.7%
Services 1.1% 2.4%
Government consumption expenditures and gross investment 1.8% 1.6%
Federal 1.7% 1.6%
National defense 2.0% 1.9%
Consumption expenditures 2.2% 2.4%
Gross investment 0.5% (1.0%)
Nondefense 1.2% 0.8%
Consumption expenditures 1.3% 1.0%
Gross investment 0.5% (0.3%)
State and local 1.8% 1.6%
Consumption expenditures 1.7% 1.7%
Gross investment 2.3% 1.2%

Etcétera

§

QDB

If you have ever spent some time on IRC then you will appreciate the Quote Database, qdb.us The site can at times be a bit slow and does toss out the odd php or database error but nothing can bring back your memories of IRC better. QDB is a repository of funny IRC conversation snippets submitted by users and gives viewers the option of rating each one as good or bad. Many of them are a bit off-color (too much so for here!) but here is one example:



(myst) so what about you? anything interesting?
(Joshua) i'm writting a book and i just left a naked lady in her bed seconds before her roommates came home.
(Joshua) it was like *pulls on pants* *roommates walk in*
(myst) what's your book about?
(Joshua) lol!
(Joshua) yup, you're a chick
(myst) lol
(myst) rofl

§

Kavli Institute for Theoretical Physics

Just found quite the treasure trove of physics/astronomy related podcasts. The Kavli Institute for Theoretical Physics at U. California Santa Barbara has a very nice site up including podcasts of many of their conferences, public lectures and colloquia. If the handful of podcasts we have opened so far are any indication, there are a limited number of still photos of blackboards and the like embedded with the audio. Good stuff!

§

3D Ski Maps

Here is an interesting site for the snowboard and ski crowd: 3dskimaps.com It is surprising nobody has managed to do something like this before now (maybe they have and we just don't know). 3dskimaps shows the mountain map(s) not just with the trails but in 3d perspective with color coding to indicate trail steepness. This is a great thing to print out and bring with you on your trip and tuck in your jacket pocket to answer the inevitable 'how steep do you think that really is?' Only a limited number of mountains so far but hopefully more soon.

Reading List

§

On Scala

Scala In Depth by J. Suereth ISBN 978-1935182702 ©2012
This was purchased after finishing the Coursera class on functional programming taught by Martin Odersky. Odersky developed the Scala language and gives an introduction to this text of 284 pages. If you are new to either Scala or functional programming, this may not be the book for you, and in fact was probably not my best choice either. While some say Odersky's own book is either outdated or could better cover some more recent features, it is most certainly the better choice for the newbie or light intermediate Scala programmer. However, this text is certainly worth having once you have some Scala under your belt. It might be better titled "Scala, a Practioner's Guide" as it really does highlight the many traps and mistakes one can make in Scala development. The advice it gives is also far more real world applicable than that of the typical programming language text. Recommended but for the appropriate audience.

§

Iran in Photos

Inside Iran by Mark Edward Harris ISBN 978-0811863308 ©2008
This is a medium sized coffee table photo book which is quite certain to piss off any neocon friends just by its presence. About 200 pages long, it groups the photos by regions within Iran and gives a short introduction at the start of each. Leaving aside the politics, there are some truly stunning images in this book and given its low cost (found in a bargain bin) it is worth picking up.

§

Cold War Intrigue

Spy Wars: Moles, Mysteries, and Deadly Games by Tennent H. Bagley ISBN 978-0300121988

This fascinating book proved great medicine while we were laid up with a cold over the recent holidays. The author was a counterintelligence officer at CIA in the 1950s and 60s, eventually rising to chief of counterintelligence for the Soviet Russia ("SR") Division and Division Deputy Director. While the book looks into many historical Tsarist and Soviet intel operations, the prime focus is on the case of a notorious KGB Soviet defector, Yuri Nosenko which the author was directly involved. The author also spends considerable time on the efforts (cover up?) by the CIA and others to rehabilitate Nosenko's bona fides as a genuine and valuable defector.

The bottom line is this - if you take the author at his word concerning the interviews and documents he was involved in, as well as those of others, there is no way one can see Nosenko as anything but a false defector. However, the question in my mind is why they would willingly send someone so blatantly unprepared - certainly they thought better of CIA than that? I have to wonder if the actual decision to 'defect' was in fact Nosenko's - he was a drunk and womanizer and going no where fast at KGB. His 1962 Geneva trip was probably a real KGB operation, but the subsequent trip could have seen Nosenko go off reservation figuring he had a ticket to a better life (ultimately) in the US if he defected rather than work in place as a 'double' as per KGB orders. This would have put KGB in quite the difficult situation.

Anyone interested in intelligence operations, especially those of the cold war period should read this book. We can only hope now that Nosenko is dead that the CIA will release *all* the files, at least those that were not destroyed in the late 1960s.

Earthquakes

M 4.6, near the south coast of Papua, Indonesia
May 08, 2013 13:34:02 GMT
M 2.8, Northern California
May 08, 2013 13:30:03 GMT
M 4.5, near the east coast of Honshu, Japan
May 08, 2013 11:18:13 GMT
M 2.6, Hawaii region, Hawaii
May 08, 2013 09:12:36 GMT
M 4.5, Fox Islands, Aleutian Islands, Alaska
May 08, 2013 08:08:13 GMT
M 2.5, western Texas
May 08, 2013 07:58:11 GMT
M 4.2, Maug Islands region, Northern Mariana Islands
May 08, 2013 07:28:35 GMT
M 4.2, northern Qinghai, China
May 08, 2013 05:53:40 GMT
M 3.2, Puerto Rico region
May 08, 2013 05:32:39 GMT
M 2.8, Nevada
May 08, 2013 04:24:24 GMT

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